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  • NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

    Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    AXNT20 KNHC 062350
    Tropical Weather Discussion
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    650 PM EST Fri Dec 6 2019
    Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
    Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
    America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
    Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
    imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
    Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
    2330 UTC.
    The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Sierra
    Leone near 07N11W to 04N17W to 04N24W. The ITCZ continues from 
    04N24W to 02N34W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from
    00N-05N between 16W-30W, and from 00N-07N between 05W-16W.
    As of 06/2100 UTC, a weak cold front extends from the mid-
    Louisiana coast near 30N91W to Brownsville Texas to 26N101W. 
    Winds are gentle ahead of the front and moderate behind the front.
    Isolated showers and tstorms are seen over the central Gulf, well
    ahead of the front, from 25N-29N between 86W-92W. Additional 
    isolated showers and tstorms are north of 29N between 85W-88W. 
    Scattered moderate showers are over the western Florida Panhandle 
    between Pensacola and Tallahassee. The remainder of the Gulf of 
    Mexico has light to gentle winds with little to no significant 
    Weak low pressure associated with the cold front is currently
    centered over SE Louisiana and SW Mississippi. The low will move
    SE to the far north-central Gulf to near the coast of southeastern
    Louisiana later this evening, with the cold front extending from 
    it to near 24N95W. The low will reach to near 29N86W by early on 
    Sat, with the cold front extending from it to near 25N90W to 
    23N95W. The low and front are expected to dissipate by late Sun 
    night. A stronger cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf 
    on Tue, and reach from the NE Gulf to the SW Gulf on Wed. Strong 
    north to northeast winds and building seas will follow in the wake
    of this front. Gale conditions are possible over the far west- 
    central Gulf Tue night and in the far SW Gulf near Veracruz Wed 
    and Wed night.
    The tail end of a stationary front over the Atlantic Ocean extends
    as far SW as the Windward Passage, but it does not continue any
    farther into the Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and tstorms are
    occurring over Hispaniola, due to the moisture enhancement
    provided by the front. The remainder of the Caribbean is
    relatively dry, with the exception of the far SW Caribbean. The
    east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate
    convection south of 14N and west of 77W, including over Panama and
    the east coast of central Nicaragua. The most recent ASCAT pass
    from late Friday morning shows strong NE to E trades in the
    south-central Caribbean from 11N-13N between 73W-78W, with fresh
    NE-E winds elsewhere from 10N-17N between 70W-81W.
    Fresh northeast to east trades will remain across most of the 
    region through Sun night, except for fresh to strong winds along 
    and near the coast of Colombia. Strong high pressure building 
    north of the area will allow for winds and seas to increase early 
    next week over much of the central and eastern Caribbean.
    A stationary front passes through 31N54W to 26N60W to the Windward
    Passage. Behind that front, a cold front extends from 32N55W to
    28N63W, then continues as a stationary front 28N63W to 26N70W to
    29N79W. Light showers are along the second front. An earlier ASCAT
    pass showed fresh NE winds to the N of the second front. Scattered 
    moderate showers and isolated tstorms are within 90 nm of the
    first front between 60W-70W. Scattered moderate convection is 
    along and within 120 nm ahead of the front east of 54W and north 
    of 26N. Surface ridging covers the eastern Atlantic, anchored by 
    a 1030 mb high centered over the Azores.
    The stationary front extending from near 31N54W to 26N60W to
    24N65W to the Windward Passage will gradually weaken through Sat 
    night. The front extending from near 32N55W to 28N63W to 26N70W to
    29N79W will quickly move southeast and merge with the northern 
    part of the stationary front by early Sat evening. The western 
    part of the second front will be left behind as a trough over the
    northwest waters Sat night into early Sun. The trough will move 
    back to the west-northwest from Sun afternoon through Mon as 
    strong high pressure builds southward across the waters north and 
    northeast of the Bahamas. The resultant tight gradient will bring 
    increasing winds along with building seas over these same waters 
    from Sun afternoon through at least Mon evening. These conditions
    are expected to begin to diminish thereafter into Wed as the next
    cold front moves into the far northwest waters late Tue night. 
    This front will reach from near 31N72W to near west-central Cuba 
    by late on Wed. Strong north to northeast winds will follow behind
    this front.